Tuesday, November 09, 2004

A test of my 'inside knowledge'

OK, I give everyone my full permission to titter if I'm wrong. But let me put it this way. If I was a betting man, I'd believe pretty much everything I heard about the election coming in February.

So what does this mean? Well Feb is a pretty unusual month for elections in the UK. In fact, we haven't had a February election since Wilson's win in 1974. Before that, you have to go back to 1950, and then consecutively in 1910 and 1906.

So why so unusual? Well I'm not sure it can be about the weather, with the assumption being that a low turnout favours the incumbent - 1974 saw the highest turnout in recent history. At a guess, I'd say that it would sweep the slate clean for the domestic agenda, buying the government a lot of time to work on the EU constitution referendum. But hey, looking outside, maybe it is the weather afterall.

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