Thursday, January 06, 2005

I humbly back down...

...And wipe the egg off my face. But Kavanagh is still wrong I tell you! It is to be a June election, I'm sure of it this time (if you believe that you'll believe anything - ed).

Seriously though, it is interesting to speculate about why the February rumours faded. The party machinery was definitely moving and the polling workload was definitely stepping up. If I had to place a bet, I'd say that despite the fact that a winter-supressed turnout would favour Labour, a lot of political baggage needed to be shifted before the campaign proper could begin (fox-hunting etc.)

Likewise, 050505 is probably a bad call as there will be local elections and hot (well, warm) weather to boost the turnout. Additionally, you can't discount the damaged caused by the high political profile of Iraq, with the elections due then (although this isn't my personal view).

So I stick my neck out once more and say June, where we've had five of the last six polls. I'm a traditionalist you see!

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